Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 63

Baltimore Ravens 21 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(11:59) 11-J.Stout punts 56 yards to CLE 7, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-D.Peoples-Jones pushed ob at CLE 15 for 8 yards (18-L.Treadwell). Penalty on CLE, Illegal Formation, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.17 EP
68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 63, worth -3.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model