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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 85

Cleveland Browns 3 – Baltimore Ravens 21

What Actually Happened

(13:30) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to BAL 37, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.76 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.39 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 85, worth -4.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 43, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model