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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 55

Baltimore Ravens 21 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(2:04) 11-J.Stout punts 51 yards to CLE 4, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.19 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 55, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 16, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.52 EP