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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 67

Cleveland Browns 3 – Baltimore Ravens 21

What Actually Happened

(5:38) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 88-H.Bryant. 88-H.Bryant up the middle to CLE 35 for 2 yards (26-G.Stone).

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.89 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 67, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 25, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model