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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 37

Baltimore Ravens 21 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(10:04) 8-L.Jackson right end pushed ob at CLE 35 for 2 yards (22-G.Delpit).

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.46 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 37, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -0.02 EP
  • 63% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 46, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model