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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 70

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(12:50) 11-J.Stout punts 45 yards to CLE 25, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.30 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 70, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 28, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model