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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 45

Cleveland Browns 3 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(8:51) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 38 yards to BAL 7, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-29-C.Mitchell.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.25 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 45, worth -2.13 EP
KICK -0.74 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP