Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 13 at the 77

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Cleveland Browns 3

(:51) 11-J.Stout punts 59 yards to CLE 18, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 28 for 10 yards (25-K.Seymour).

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.62 EP
71% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 77, worth -4.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model