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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 74

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(3:32) 13-B.Pinion punts 58 yards to JAX 16, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.60 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 74, worth -4.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 32, worth -1.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model