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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 6

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20

What Actually Happened

(6:06) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass incomplete short right to 5-D.London (37-T.Herndon) [44-T.Walker].

The Three Options

GO +2.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.03 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 6, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model