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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 84

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(9:45) 13-B.Pinion punts 61 yards to JAX 23, Center-49-L.McCullough. 11-P.Washington to JAX 28 for 5 yards (37-D.Hellams; 40-K.Smith). JAX-11-P.Washington was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.38 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 84, worth -5.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.30 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 42, worth -2.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP