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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 13 at the 51

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(3:04) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to JAX 10, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.46 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 51, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -1.43 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model