4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 57

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(11:36) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to ATL 7, impetus ends at ATL 3, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-20-D.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.90 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 57, worth -2.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 17, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model