4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 69

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 13-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to JAX 20, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.14 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 69, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 27, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model