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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 7

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(2:26) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at ATL 12 for -5 yards (90-D.Onyemata).

The Three Options

GO +3.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.51 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 7, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model