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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 19 at the 26

Tennessee Titans 0 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(14:18) 6-N.Folk 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
  • 19% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.42 EP
  • 81% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 36, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model