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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 74

Cleveland Browns 3 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(5:05) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to TEN 26, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-M.Kinsey pushed ob at TEN 39 for 13 yards (5-A.Walker).

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.64 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 74, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 32, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model