4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 63

Cleveland Browns 27 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to TEN 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds. PENALTY on TEN-56-M.Rice, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 10.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +0.95 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 63, worth -2.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 21, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model