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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 56

Tennessee Titans 3 – Cleveland Browns 27

What Actually Happened

(4:58) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.23 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 56, worth -2.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 17, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model