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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 17 at the 97

Tennessee Titans 3 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(13:32) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 67 yards to CLE 30, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-D.Peoples-Jones MUFFS catch, and recovers at CLE 23. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 36 for 13 yards (50-J.Gibbens).

The Three Options

GO -4.42 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.30 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 97, worth -6.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

PUNT -2.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 53, worth -2.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model