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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 48

Cleveland Browns 20 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(:19) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 38 yards to TEN 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 12-M.Kinsey.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.94 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 48, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP