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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 65

Tennessee Titans 3 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(11:34) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 48 yards to CLE 17, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 15 for -2 yards (45-C.Campbell; 57-L.Gifford).

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.68 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 65, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 23, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model