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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 34

Cleveland Browns 10 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 7-D.Hopkins 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.76 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 44, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model