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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 19 at the 48

Tennessee Titans 3 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(3:57) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.91 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 48, worth -2.77 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model