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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 70

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:42) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to PIT 20, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 19-C.Austin to PIT 25 for 5 yards (45-Jak.Johnson, 50-J.Bobenmoyer).

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.75 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 28, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model