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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 32

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:10) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.02 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
  • 78% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model