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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 73

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:41) 6-P.Harvin punts 59 yards to LV 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 3-D.Carter to LV 26 for 12 yards (93-M.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.11 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 73, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 31, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model