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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 22

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 23

What Actually Happened

(13:18) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short middle to 16-J.Meyers (29-L.Wallace).

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.91 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model