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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 81

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:40) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to PIT 33, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 19-C.Austin to PIT 48 for 15 yards (36-C.Bolton). PENALTY on PIT-42-J.Pierre, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 33.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.23 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 38, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP