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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 66

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(13:07) 6-P.Harvin punts 57 yards to LV 9, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 3-D.Carter to LV 12 for 3 yards (93-M.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 66, worth -4.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 24, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP