Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 61

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

(1:01) 6-P.Harvin punts 47 yards to LV 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-42-J.Pierre.

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.60 EP
66% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 61, worth -3.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model