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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 48

Green Bay Packers 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(3:19) 19-D.Whelan punts 38 yards to NO 10, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.60 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 48, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -1.02 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model