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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 28

New Orleans Saints 17 – Green Bay Packers 18

What Actually Happened

(1:10) 19-B.Grupe 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +3.08 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 38, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model