Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 76

New Orleans Saints 17 – Green Bay Packers 11

What Actually Happened

(5:31) 39-L.Hedley punts 46 yards to GB 30, Center-49-Z.Wood. 25-K.Nixon to GB 30 for no gain (48-J.Gray). PENALTY on GB-55-K.Enagbare, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 30.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP

55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.86 EP
45% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model