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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 61

New Orleans Saints 17 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(8:38) 39-L.Hedley punts 41 yards to GB 20, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-48-J.Gray.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.76 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 20, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model