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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 20

Green Bay Packers 0 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(11:04) 17-A.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.06 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 20, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model