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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 44

Green Bay Packers 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(10:52) 31-Em.Wilson FUMBLES (Aborted) at GB 48, recovered by GB-10-J.Love at GB 46. 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep left to 13-D.Wicks.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.40 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 44, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.44 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model