Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 16 at the 57

New Orleans Saints 17 – Green Bay Packers 0

(10:26) 39-L.Hedley punts 47 yards to GB 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.11 EP
74% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model