Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 15 at the 64

Green Bay Packers 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

(10:47) 19-D.Whelan punts 40 yards to NO 24, Center-42-M.Orzech. 22-R.Shaheed for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.00 EP
71% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 64, worth -3.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model