Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 19 at the 84

New Orleans Saints 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

(13:51) 39-L.Hedley punts 38 yards to GB 46, Center-49-Z.Wood. 11-J.Reed to GB 48 for 2 yards (45-N.Sewell; 48-J.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -3.41 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
74% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 84, worth -5.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model