Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 14 at the 83

New Orleans Saints 7 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:28) 39-L.Hedley punts 49 yards to GB 34, Center-49-Z.Wood. 11-J.Reed pushed ob at GB 38 for 4 yards (45-N.Sewell). PENALTY on GB-34-J.Owens, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 36.

The Three Options

GO -3.13 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.09 EP
69% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 83, worth -5.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model