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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 53

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 14-R.Wright punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.32 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -0.85 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 15, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model