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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 2

Minnesota Vikings 24 – Los Angeles Chargers 28

What Actually Happened

(2:58) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 18-J.Jefferson (43-M.Davis) [97-J.Bosa]. Penalty on MIN-18-J.Jefferson, Illegal Shift, declined.

The Three Options

GO +3.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.94 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 2, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model