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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 36

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 21

What Actually Happened

(3:09) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 17-K.Osborn for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.90 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.93 EP
KICK +0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model