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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 46

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(7:10) 14-R.Wright punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.54 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -0.53 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model