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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 35

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(10:54) 11-C.Dicker 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.30 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 35, worth -1.55 EP
KICK +0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 45, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model