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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 1

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(:50) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 89-D.Parham for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.21 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 1, worth +0.14 EP
KICK +2.20 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model