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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 5

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:11) 1-G.Joseph 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +2.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.97 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 5, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP