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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 70

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(12:54) 16-J.Scott punts 27 yards to MIN 43, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-31-N.Niemann.

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 70, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 28, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model