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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 43

Baltimore Ravens 19 – Indianapolis Colts 19

What Actually Happened

(:06) 9-J.Tucker 61 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +0.67 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 43, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.02 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -0.27 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model